
What risk can and should be mitigated?
After having calculated its risk tolerance the business may come to the conclusion that the overall risk is more than the business can carry. In that case it might be necessary to mitigate some of the risk inherent in the business. But not all risk can or should be mitigated. The macro risk the business […]

Modelling volatility
An estimate of variability is the most important input into a risk model. Risk arises because the actual variable values differ from the expected value. This is why the first question you need to ask yourself in order to estimate risk is: How much can the variables be expected to differ from the expected value? […]

Modelling correlations
In a model which aims to estimate risk there are two main indicators which are used to describe the uncertainty in the variables: Volatility: How much can variable values be expected to differ from their expected values? Correlation: How do different variables impact each other? In this article I will cover modelling of correlation. If […]

Risk modelling with Excel @Risk
Excel @Risk is an Addin to Excel made by Palisade Corporation. With an Excelmodel as basis, @Risk can simulate and calculate figures which will assess the risk in the base calculations. So, the starting point for risk modelling with Excel is a model which captures the relationships between variables you want to model. In most […]