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What risk can and should be mitigated?
After having calculated its risk tolerance the business may come to the conclusion that the overall risk is more than the business can carry. In that case it might be necessary to mitigate some of the risk inherent in the business. But not all risk can or should be mitigated. The macro risk the business…
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Modelling volatility
An estimate of variability is the most important input into a risk model. Risk arises because the actual variable values differ from the expected value. This is why the first question you need to ask yourself in order to estimate risk is: How much can the variables be expected to differ from the expected value?…
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Modellering av volatilitet
Et estimat på variabilitet er den viktigste input’en i en risikomodell. Risiko oppstår fordi de faktiske variabelverdiene avviker fra forventet verdi. Derfor er det første spørsmålet man må stille seg for å kunne estimere risiko: Hvor mye kan variablene forventes å avvike fra forventet verdi? Om du ikke forventer noe avvik er variabelen å anse…
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Modelling correlations
In a model which aims to estimate risk there are two main indicators which are used to describe the uncertainty in the variables: Volatility: How much can variable values be expected to differ from their expected values? Correlation: How do different variables impact each other? In this article I will cover modelling of correlation. If…